What We Can Learn About Predictive Analytics From The Blizzard That Wasn't

We are drowning in data. According to Nate Silver we now produce every day, three times per second, the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection. 

That’s a lot of data!

And it’s only going to get worse. Each of us is in some part responsible for the deluge. Every move we make on our Internet browsers and on each social media network we engage in is being tracked. Our comings and goings, our likes and dislikes are all helping to make Big Data bigger.  

One of the hottest new jobs is that of data scientist, a person whose job it is to analyze these enormous piles of data for insights that can predict. Predict where we want to travel to, what we want to eat for dinner, what shoes we want to buy, who we want to work for, who wants us to work for them, who we want to date.

Sometimes it works quite well.

Right around Christmas I was looking for new snow boots. I looked in a few stores, but for the most part my research was being done on line. I knew what I wanted. Comfortable with a good tread. After last winter I wasn’t as concerned with the fashion statement I was making as I was with not slipping on the ice. But I  still wanted something that said I had some sense of style. 

Boots started to follow me everywhere I went. On my iPhone, my iPad and my desktop. 

And then the result of all my research appeared right in the middle of my Facebook feed on the day after Christmas. 

It was an ad from Amazon for a pair of Merrell boots that was on sale. 

I had never bought a pair of Merrell’s before, nor had I ever bought an article of clothing on Amazon before. But the price was right so I clicked through. I read about the boots. I went to the Merrell website. I read the reviews.  

I decided to go for it.  I took advantage of my Amazon Prime membership and free shipping and hit the buy button. 

The boots fit perfectly. They are comfortable and keep my feet dry. All those cookies that had been tracking me served me up what I wanted. I am a happy customer.

But it doesn’t always work so well. 

Sometimes we get it right. Sometimes we don’t. 

Last week’s blizzard was is a case in point. 

We have more data than ever before to predict the weather. We want to believe all those insights are going to give us the right answer. But as we saw - especially if you lived as I do in New York City - there was no “historic snowstorm” as the data was indicating and all the meteorologists and politicians were standing behind. 

Instead of backpedaling afterwards, all one needs to do is understand the truth of the data going in. 

It informs. 
It garners valuable insight. 
It can direct decisions. 
It can assess risk or potential. 

But not every behavior or weather pattern can be predicted. 

Things will happen. Things that we never accounted for. 

Like that weather band that decided to skirt New York City last week.

How To Choose Your Social Networks

I live in a city where on any given night there are hundreds, if not thousands of cocktail parties I could attend. But even if I had the desire and the invitations to go to every single one, it would be physically impossible.

So I choose where I want to be.

Sometimes it's to learn something.  Sometimes it's to be social. Other times my interest is to network professionally. Sometimes it's solely to avoid doing stuff I should otherwise be doing.  On occasion, I show up somewhere because there is nothing else to do. 

Once I get to where I am going there are more choices to make.

Unless it is a group under ten people, chances are I will not be able to or want to talk to every person in the room. 

So I make decisions. 

Maybe I'll seek someone out because I heard something about them that interested me and wanted to meet them.

Perhaps I already know them and want to reconnect.

A conversation could start over a shared like of that last hors d’oeurve tray with the fabulous crab cakes that just went by. 

Maybe we'll start talking because I overheard their conversation and wanted to join in.  

Sometimes it's just a look across the room that tells me I want to meet that person.  

Other times that person is the one approaching and making the decision. 

But there is a process that involves choice.

The same choices hold true when it comes to online social networks.

Without intention, focus and a set of boundaries, each can be boring and an enormous waste of time. But used properly they both can serve an equally important purpose.

To connect humans with humans. 

Special deal extended through February 14!

How To Own Your Story

One of the perks of teaching a graduate class at NYU is that I get to interact with students who come from all over the world with the most fascinating backgrounds. I encourage them to share their stories. As I see it their stories are part of what makes up their personal brand and it's important to get clear on what that is - especially in today's world where your digital footprint means so much. 

This always proves a challenge. 

Even more so than the telling of the story is in the owning of it. 

By owning it I mean really standing in it. 
Liking it.
Every inch of it.
The good and the not so good.
All the twists and turns.  
The bumps and detours along the way. 
The stuff that might embarrass us if we allow it to. 

It sounds easier than it is. 
Which is why most of us don't do it.
This lack of ownership is not limited to my grad students.

We trivialize our achievements.
We ignore the parts of us that others see as assets.
We think our stories aren't interesting enough.
We compare our stories and see ourselves falling short.

We don't see our own value.
We lack belief in who we are and what we are doing.
We forget that what makes a story good is all those twists and turns we've taken.

As someone who has reinvented three times my story has evolved over time. Each time I stumbled a bit before I got going. But when I started to own the place I was in my story - my authentic self took over and that's when it all started to flow.

When we own our stories we become a magnet. People want to know who we are. Read our stuff. Buy our products. Hire us. Maybe even take us on a date.


So how does one own their story?

You start by learning to like it. To see all the steps you took to get you to now as having purpose and value. 

It might require a mild out of body experience in which you step back and look at yourself as if you are someone you have never met - just some stranger you struck up a conversation with at a cocktail party.

Or simply an hour with a pen and paper writing down all those things you're good at, have experience with, the places you've lived, the adventures you've embarked on, the mark you want to make on the world, what makes you smile.

The more convinced you allow yourself to become that your story matters - the more you own it. And when we own our stories - everything changes.

So tell me - are you owning your story?


psst...the Big Countdown to Spring Sale continues over at Amazon! 

12 Alternatives To Selling

I hear it all the time. From smart, creative entrepreneurs and corporate executives alike.

"I can't sell."
"I am not a salesperson." 
"There are a lot of things I am good at - but selling is not one of them."
"I could never do that!"

The unfortunate news for them is that in a very noisy 24/7, interconnected world in which everyone has a voice and a platform on which they can be heard and in which the skinny on who you really are or what your business is about is nothing more than a Google search away - the truth is we are all selling - even if we don't want to admit it. 

But before you can hone those skills, my advice is to look to reframe the word "sell" into something that sounds more appealing.

If you are one of those people who say they "can't sell" or for whom the mere mention of the word makes them break out in hives, try one of these alternatives.

• invite 
• enroll 
• educate 
• influence 
• captivate 
• inspire 
• seduce 
• engage 
• persuade
• entice 
• solve a problem 
• tell a really good story 

If you can do any one or combination of the above, you can sell. In fact, you've been selling all along - you just didn't realize it. 

The Front Desk

On Valentine’s Day I learned that a former colleague had passed. A woman who made everyone smile from the Senior Vice President to the Fed Ex delivery person.  She had an infectious laugh and a bright smile. She possessed the kind of dedication to her job and loyalty to the company that you wish you could bottle. It wasn’t because she was paid a lot of money. She wasn’t. She didn’t hold a senior position at the company. She was the receptionist. The person who sat at the front desk, greeted visitors  and answered the phones.

I was sad when I learned of the news. Anyone who had ever met Edie Strong would say the same thing. She made every one feel special, greeting you by name when you arrived in the morning and asking you when you would be back if you were going on an appointment and then writing the answer down in case she forgot.  She came in early even when she didn’t get paid anything extra and would personally deliver everyone’s newspapers to their office.

Her job may not have ranked high in an organizational chart, but she treated it as though she was the Chairwoman of the Board. Even when she did not agree with the way something was being communicated internally, she never let her feelings be known.

The clients knew her by name. They knew if they could not get a hold of whoever they were looking for all they had to do was press O for the Operator and she would help them however she could. Sometimes that meant getting up from her desk and tracking you down in the bathroom.  

She kept lists of all the answers to the possible questions she might get in the course of a day as well as the phone numbers to refer people to. She was pleasant to everyone but she kept close tabs on who was doing their job and who wasn’t. Her radar was impeccable.

She answered the phones in a distinct, pleasant and articulate voice. “Time Warner CityCable, NY1 News, may I help you?”  that somehow managed to stay calm and reassuring to our families on 9/11 when the phones went crazy. That voice became such a recognizable touchpoint for customers it was used as the voice over for the companies television and radio ads.

Edie Strong was one of a kind in so many respects. More than just a colleague, friend and good employee, she was a true Brand Ambassador. From where she sat she saw that part of her responsibility was to represent the company. While she might not have ever said it aloud she knew she had an impact on the impression someone formed.

Today organizations everywhere are on the search for people like her. They seek to cultivate the loyalists who will spread their message on the social networks and increase their exposure and hopefully form the opinions they would like created. Yet too few even think to look internally. Most have foregone a human to answer phones in lieu of an automated attendant. It seems such obvious customer service but the cost consideration in most organizations comes first. It’s so drilled in our heads that a website today is the first touchpoint for most customers, we forget about the other simpler, more human ones. Worse we forget to train our employees that how they act matters.

I can’t say that anyone trained Edie to be the way she was. She was that rare individual who got it without being told what to do. Most of the rest of us need help. 

She could take her job dedication a bit too far. Like the day she went to the doctor’s at lunch and they suspected her cancer had come back. They wanted her to go for tests immediately but Edie insisted on coming back to work.  I still remember her sitting in my office arguing the point while another colleague got her daughter on the phone to come get her.

One of Edie’s greatest gifts was that not only could she make you smile, no matter how bad your day was going, she could make you laugh. Out. Loud.  In fact, just thinking about that makes me giggle. Which was always her intention.

What Not Being On Time Says About You

I have a reputation for being on time. One I am proud of. In fact in the rare occurrences when I am not on time - people who know me tend to worry that something must be wrong. It's helped me to build business relationships and develop trust. But it stresses out some of my friends - especially the ones who are always running late. 

As it should.

There are a lot of people who think it doesn't matter. They have no problem keeping other people waiting. They think it does not mean anything to say they will meet you at 10AM and be a half hour late.

The fact is - not being on time says a lot about who you are - personally and professionally.

It says you are disorganized.
It says your life is in disarray and you don't have enough of a handle on it to keep your appointments.
It says you commit to things and don't follow through.

Most importantly - it says you don't value my time.

It says you don't think I'm significant.
It says you don't care.

It's not a good way to do business.
It's not a good way to make friends.

And in a world in which you have nine seconds to capture someone's attention - you've lost before you started. 


If you need help managing your time - may I suggest It Takes An Egg Timer - A Guide to Creating the Time for Your Life ?
available in paperback and Kindle on Amazon.

What To Do When Technology Fails You

We expect technology to work. We expect it never to fail us. Frustration levels rise when the page we opened in Safari is taking too long to load. We can't understand why we are at a conference with bad WIFI that is preventing us  from tweeting our opinions to the rest of the world. Ten years ago a Smartphone was not a necessity and today we panic if the battery is draining too quickly and our charger is nowhere to be found. A rash of expletives fall out of our mouths when we are trying to complete a transaction on line and have a bad user experience.

We don't just expect technology to work.  We demand it. In fact many of us think it's smarter than we are. 

Humans can and do make mistakes. But not technology. 

Or so we think.

We forget that it is humans who create the technology.  And it will always be humans who need to oversee their creations.

Case in point. The day after Christmas Delta Airlines experienced a glitch in their systems that offered crazy low fares - $6.99 round trip to Hawaii. The news of the offers spread like wildfire on the social networks while humans intervened to correct the mistake. The system did not know it made an error. The humans at the other end are the ones who found out and the ones who fixed it. 

This kind of stuff happens. It will always happen. No matter how advanced artificial intelligence might get - it will break down. And what do you do when it happens to you?

In the case of Delta they did the right thing. Once they caught it they shut down the site until it was corrected. And because it was their error,  they honored the bargain fares. 

Which proves my point :

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Somedays It's Out Of Your Control

I think being an entrepreneur is one of the few things you can do where you can be busy all day long and at the end of it have no idea what you have done to move the needle. 

I've had a lot of those days since that damn Mercury went into retrograde.  Those in the know will tell you it's been exceptionally hard for people. A lot complaining about exhaustion and intense emotions. 

I admit to being one of those people who believe in planetary influences. I understand energy and how sometimes it flows and sometimes it doesn't.

But that does not make me feel any more satisfied when I hear that maybe the reason I  have no idea what I have done to move my business is because of something out of my control. 

Yes, I admit it. Deep within me lies a control freak.

All those years of selling ingrained this idea into my head that there is always something I can do to move things in the direction I  want them to. That me - only me - has the ability to make something happen by controlling every move.

Only part of that is true. I do possess the ability to create - but not necessarily by controlling every step. 

Yes there are things you can do and should do and if you were working with me I could give you a long list of techniques to grow your business. 

And then there are those things you are driven to do - if an entrepreneur - hopefully from deep within your soul. 


But you still can't control it all.

You never will.

There will always be days when every moment is filled and things spin in unforeseen directions, at the end of which you have no idea what it all meant.

At which point the only option is to surrender and trust that a power greater than you sees the bigger picture. 

And be thankful Mercury straightens itself out on November 11.



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When They Don't Get It And You Do

Earlier this week I was checking my Google Analytics and noticed more traffic than usual to my site. I clicked the links to discover that a blog I wrote  on what to do if you get a pink slip that also appeared on The Huffington Post had been repurposed for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Brisbane Times  and The Canberra Times.  In Australia!

I was pretty excited. I was living one of those miracle moments of the digital world. My "sagely advice" was being quoted in Australia - literally halfway around the world! As a blogger and as a writer that is a very good day. 

That evening I was having dinner with some friends. I was still bursting with my unexpected discovery when I arrived at the restaurant, so I shared. 

The first response I got was "Are they paying you for that?"

I kept what I wanted to say inside of my head - which was  - are you #@!##!! kidding me? I just tell you that my post is picked up in a major paper in Australia and all you want to know is if I got paid for it!!??


What I did let out of my mouth was this.

"No, they didn't pay me. But they certainly credited me. And really - I got picked up in Australia!"

"Yeah, but they should pay you for it."

I found myself starting to defend the whole thing. To explain to this man who spends his days locked inside a corporate office the value of exposure to an entirely new audience - for my writing and for my business. That allowing sharing on the web as long as it is attributable to the author can ultimately result in more money than being paid for the article. (Not that being paid wouldn't be nice). I told him in the world of marketing this is called earned media.  I explained what a Creative Commons License meant.  I tried to make him see that I get to do what I love, and someone on the far side of the globe noticed it's value.

But then I noticed the vacant look in his eyes. 

He didn't get it. He wasn't going to get it. In fact I'm not sure he wanted to.

He is a part of the old way of doing business in which the cardinal rule is to never do anything unless  there is a direct and clear money line attached. The idea of being generous with your ideas is foreign to them. They are not sure how to spell 'free' much less offer it. They don't understand the value of online connection unless they see immediate monetization. The only metric of success they value is money.

I took a long sip of my wine. I smiled and let the conversation go elsewhere. It didn't matter that he didn't get it. I do. And for that I am very grateful.



Note- I will be speaking at BlogHerPro a conference for professionally-minded online influencers interested in taking their business, marketing and technical skills to the next level. If that's you join me there and use promo code PRO13FF for 30% off BlogHer Pro '13 Registration!



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How To Lose A Customer 101

It's much easier to lose a customer than keep one that already exists. 

Keeping one involves investing in good customer service. It requires the intersection of technology with humans - trained to and able to think and help a customer in need. It means you understand that today - even if your product is really great - there is  always an option for another that does the same thing. It means understanding how easy it is to lose your customer to a competitor.

Yet I continue to be amazed how many companies don't. They create web support that is not user friendly and frustrating telephone systems that keep you caught in a maze of prompts until you get someone on the line that might be really helpful - if you both happened to speak the same language. 

Case in point is what I experienced a few weeks ago with Hewlett-Packard as I tried to configure my existing wireless printer with my brand new modem from the folks at Time Warner Cable.

The result of that adventure is the following user friendly list of what you too can do, if you want to lose a customer to a competitor.

• Have a website that offers "support" but doesn't answer the question the customer has.
• Have a customer support phone service that makes the customer first talk to a robot.
• Make sure that robot never offers a question prompt that fits in with the customer's problem.
• Make sure that your 7-Day a week Customer Care line does not employ people on the weekend who can help if the customer has an Apple product.
• Make the customer pay a fee for your help when their product is out of warranty. 
• Take the money - but don't solve the problem. 
• Have a customer rep who tells the customer that their three year old printer is a "really old machine" and that must be why it is not recognizing the brand new modem the cable company delivered the week before.
• Have the rep promise not to reverse the charge for support but never send the confirmation. 
• Have the rep try to upsell the customer a new printer as a solution.
• Have the rep promise to send information on the upgrade deal.
• Don't do that either.
• When the customer decides to call one more time, hopeful they will get another, more knowledgeable rep on the phone make sure they get the same one.
• When the customer tells the rep they discovered in their online searches that the problem has to do with a compatibility with Arris modems and would like help on a work-around have the rep (who never heard of this issue before) consult with his "mentor."
• Have the mentor inform the rep the problem is a "known" incompatibility with that printer model and Arris modems and there is no solution.
• Have the rep suggest the customer have the cable company come and replace it with one that does.
• Make sure that the "known" incompatibility is nowhere in your troubleshooter answers on your website support FAQs.
• Offer no formal apologies and in no way try to make amends for the fact the customer has been charged for support that did not fix the problem or the fact they have now been without a printer for two weeks.
• Do not seem the least bit phased when the customer tells you the new printer they are going to have to buy will most certainly not be one of yours. Ever. Again.
• Send a request for feedback on the support the customer received and assure them a "personal response will not be provided." 
  
• Somehow manage to place a sponsored "suggested post" in their Facebook feed that afternoon on how "hot" your products are.
  

And just like that you too can lose a customer to a competitor ! The key is to automate support as much as possible and not properly train and equip the humans you do employ.

p.s.

My new printer could have been an HP but it's not. It's an Epson which for the record, had no problem recognizing the modem.

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The 140 Character Universe

Sometimes there are just too many words. 

Yes, that was me who wrote that. A writer at her core. A person who needs words. Lots of them to express herself in the way in which she wants.

But sometimes less is more. Scratch that. When it comes to words, less is always more. 

Writers are taught to clean it up and to show me, don't tell me. It's ingrained in the head of a writer. The little bird sitting on your shoulder - asking - is that word REALLY necessary? 

Of course, today everyone is writing. If not the great American novel, chances are somewhere in the course of an average day a line or two is posted on Facebook, a Tweet is sent to your tribe, a shout out on Google+ or perhaps a cute little hook on Instagram. At the minimum you've sent at least one email or text message.

If someone has not told you about the less is more concept, you might not make your point.

-You might try a blog post that runs the length of one of those articles in Vanity Fair, which is great for a juicy magazine article, but considered a ramble for a blog that should run between 350-750 words.

-You might respond to someone else's blog post in 410 words with no beginning, middle or end that leaves the reader wondering what your point was and longing for the excess time that you seem to have.

-You might never get a retweet because the original tweet was just too long and there was nowhere to cut it down.

-That email you wrote to pitch a new client never got read because the reason for the note was buried somewhere in the fourth paragraph.

-The text you sent was so long it came in three sections which explains why your boyfriend still doesn't understand why you're mad. He never read it.

If your intention is being heard - or in this case read - get to your point. Keep it concise. Don't make us wonder what your point really is. In a world where our attention span has shriveled to that of a goldfish, there just isn't time to go wasting a lot of words.

Twitter forces the practice. For better or for worse. On the one hand it is a challenge to get to the point in just 140 characters (120 if you'd like your message retweeted). On the other hand, it forces us to get clear on what we want to say. 

But even if you're not tweeting, the point of all this technology is to connect. The 140 character message won't always work, but it's a good barometer - especially if you want to make your point. 

The 9 Reasons I Might Ignore That LinkedIn Invitation You Sent

A few weeks ago I spoke with a group  at a New York Women in Communications Digital Salon on the subject of digital profiles, their importance and how best to use them to our advantage. One of the questions I was asked was whether I accept every invitation to connect I get on LinkedIn.

My answer was a complicated no.

My general rule of thumb is that if our paths have crossed, I've met you at a function, worked with you, went to school with you, or are connected because of blood lines I will say yes.

But what if I don't? What if you are a complete stranger reaching out?  What do I do then?

There is no hard and fast rule. And while I generally do not like to ignore anyone, (I think it's rude and bad karma) in the digital world I sometimes do.

The question is, how do I make that decision?
The answer is, it's really pretty easy.

If I've ignored an invitation you sent to me the reasons are most likely one or a combination of those on this list:

1. I've never met you.
2. We have no connections in common.
3. You don't have a picture in your profile.
4. Your profile says nothing about you.
5. You lied to me and to LinkedIn and said we were friends and then admitted to me you lied.
6. You did not personalize your invitation.
7. You personalized it with something to the tune of "I think it would be good to connect" without a reason why it might be good to connect.
8. We share nothing in common. Not a group. Not a person. Not an industry.
9. It's looking like the only reason you want to connect is to sell me something.

LinkedIn is about my business. I'm there to expand it, to network, to share useful information and to find information I might find useful. Which means I am going to be thoughtful - maybe even a bit choosy at times - about who I want in my circles.

So if you want me to connect with you and you're a stranger give me a reason to want to engage with you. Tell me who you are. Show me your face. Let me know why you think connecting will be a good thing. For both of us.